Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Merab Dvalishvili
Cody Stamann
74%
26%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
64"
30
Age
Δ 1y
32
22-5
Career record
Δ 14 pp
21-9-1
W5
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Dvalishvili: 71 sig / 5 TD ·
Stamann: 48 sig / 1 TD
Merab Dvalishvili
Cody Stamann
65
Sig strikes landed
53
153
Sig strikes attempted
127
111
Total strikes landed
74
3.3
Takedowns landed
0.8
9.8
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
295s
Control time
69s
Method
Decision
78%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Merab Dvalishvili
"The Machine"
22-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
—
Blue corner
L1
Cody Stamann
"The Spartan"
21-9-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
—
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
W
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
L
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—