Back to UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Prochazka
Main Light Heavyweight

Dominick Reyes vs Jiri Prochazka

UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Prochazka ·Meta Apex
Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Dominick Reyes
Jiri Prochazka
18% 82%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 3"
80"
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
16-6
Career record
Δ 10 pp
33-6-1
L2
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Reyes: 63 sig / 1 TD · Prochazka: 77 sig / 1 TD
Dominick Reyes
Jiri Prochazka
43
Sig strikes landed
41
92
Sig strikes attempted
87
44
Total strikes landed
42
0.2
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
49s
Control time
31s
Method
Decision
20%
KO/TKO
74%
Submission
7%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Dominick Reyes

"The Devastator"
16-6
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database 8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
L UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—
L UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
W UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
W UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
Blue corner
W1

Jiri Prochazka

33-6-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—