Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ben Rothwell
Chris Barnett
76%
24%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
40
Age
Δ 5y
35
L1
Current streak
—
14
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Rothwell: 60 sig / 1 TD ·
Barnett: 33 sig / 0 TD
Ben Rothwell
Chris Barnett
47
Sig strikes landed
45
107
Sig strikes attempted
90
58
Total strikes landed
63
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.5
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
106s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Ben Rothwell
39-15
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
14 fights · 8-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
Blue corner
Chris Barnett
"Beastboy"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35