Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Kevin Aguilar
Tucker Lutz
56%
44%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
33
Age
Δ 6y
27
L3
Current streak
—
5
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Aguilar: 81 sig / 0 TD ·
Lutz: 99 sig / 3 TD
Kevin Aguilar
Tucker Lutz
50
Sig strikes landed
44
112
Sig strikes attempted
104
71
Total strikes landed
59
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
130s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Kevin Aguilar
"Angel of Death"
17-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—
Blue corner
Tucker Lutz
"Top Gun"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27