Back to UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson
Prelims1 Welterweight

Christian Aguilera vs Carlston Harris

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Christian Aguilera
Carlston Harris
48% 52%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
30
Age
Δ 4y
34
L1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Aguilera: 1 sig / 0 TD · Harris: 5 sig / 0 TD
Christian Aguilera
Carlston Harris
25
Sig strikes landed
34
53
Sig strikes attempted
71
38
Total strikes landed
51
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.9
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
114s
Control time
108s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
27%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Christian Aguilera

"The Beast"
14-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
—
W UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
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Blue corner

Carlston Harris

"Mocambique"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34