Prelims1
Bantamweight
Tony Gravely vs Anthony Birchak
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tony Gravely
Anthony Birchak
80%
20%
Why
69"
Reach
69"
30
Age
Δ 5y
35
24-9
Career record
Δ 9 pp
16-9
W1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Gravely: 39 sig / 4 TD ·
Birchak: 18 sig / 0 TD
Tony Gravely
Anthony Birchak
31
Sig strikes landed
24
59
Sig strikes attempted
62
59
Total strikes landed
47
2.4
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.6
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
204s
Control time
83s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Tony Gravely
24-9
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—
Blue corner
L1
Anthony Birchak
"El Toro"
16-9
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Tei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—