Prelims1
Middleweight
Bartosz Fabinski vs Gerald Meerschaert
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Bartosz Fabinski
Gerald Meerschaert
43%
57%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
35
Age
Δ 2y
33
15-6
Career record
Δ 10 pp
37-23
L2
Current streak
L2
5
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Fabinski: 6 sig / 1 TD ·
Meerschaert: 8 sig / 0 TD
Bartosz Fabinski
Gerald Meerschaert
20
Sig strikes landed
22
41
Sig strikes attempted
36
39
Total strikes landed
37
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.9
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
191s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
19%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
65%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Bartosz Fabinski
"The Butcher"
15-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sa…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
—
Blue corner
L2
Gerald Meerschaert
"GM3"
37-23
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
12 fights · 6-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
L
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
W
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—