Main
Heavyweight
Andrei Arlovski vs Chase Sherman
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Andrei Arlovski
Chase Sherman
52%
48%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
42
Age
Δ 11y
31
34-25
Career record
Δ 1 pp
17-12
L1
Current streak
W1
20
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Arlovski: 105 sig / 0 TD ·
Sherman: 88 sig / 0 TD
Andrei Arlovski
Chase Sherman
70
Sig strikes landed
61
140
Sig strikes attempted
131
67
Total strikes landed
71
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.1
2.6
Takedowns attempted
-0.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
100s
Control time
51s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Andrei Arlovski
"The Pitbull"
34-25
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
42
In our database
20 fights · 9-10
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Tei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
L
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1
Chase Sherman
"The Vanilla Gorilla"
17-12
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 3-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—