Main
Middleweight
Robert Whittaker vs Kelvin Gastelum
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Robert Whittaker
Kelvin Gastelum
75%
25%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
30
Age
Δ 1y
30
28-9
Career record
Δ 9 pp
22-11
W2
Current streak
W1
16
UFC fights in our DB
18
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Whittaker: 150 sig / 4 TD ·
Gastelum: 62 sig / 1 TD
Robert Whittaker
Kelvin Gastelum
69
Sig strikes landed
59
160
Sig strikes attempted
135
83
Total strikes landed
67
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.6
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
77s
Control time
66s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Robert Whittaker
"The Reaper"
28-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
16 fights · 13-3
Last 5
W
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
W
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
Blue corner
W1
Kelvin Gastelum
22-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
18 fights · 11-6
Last 5
W
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
L
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
L
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
W
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
—