Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Adrian Yanez
Gustavo Lopez
78%
22%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
67"
27
Age
Δ 4y
32
18-6-1
Career record
Δ 7 pp
13-6-1
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Yanez: 41 sig / 0 TD ·
Lopez: 23 sig / 0 TD
Adrian Yanez
Gustavo Lopez
32
Sig strikes landed
15
70
Sig strikes attempted
40
38
Total strikes landed
18
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.0
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
74s
Control time
52s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Adrian Yanez
18-6-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
Blue corner
W1
Gustavo Lopez
13-6-1
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Tei…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
—