Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Derek Brunson
Kevin Holland
40%
60%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 4"
81"
37
Age
Δ 9y
28
24-9
Career record
Δ 6 pp
30-15
W3
Current streak
W5
17
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Brunson: 43 sig / 6 TD ·
Holland: 36 sig / 1 TD
Derek Brunson
Kevin Holland
24
Sig strikes landed
43
52
Sig strikes attempted
90
53
Total strikes landed
70
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.2
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
217s
Control time
81s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Derek Brunson
"The One"
24-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
17 fights · 12-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
—
W
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
L
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—
Blue corner
W5
Kevin Holland
"Trailblazer"
30-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—