Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Marc-Andre Barriault
Abu Azaitar
42%
58%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
31
Age
Δ 4y
35
17-11
Career record
Δ 14 pp
15-4-1
L3
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Barriault: 141 sig / 0 TD ·
Azaitar: 108 sig / 0 TD
Marc-Andre Barriault
Abu Azaitar
55
Sig strikes landed
50
129
Sig strikes attempted
123
69
Total strikes landed
71
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.8
2.1
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
79s
Control time
211s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Marc-Andre Barriault
"Powerbar"
17-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
L
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
Blue corner
W1
Abu Azaitar
"Captain Morocco"
15-4-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—