Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Dominick Cruz
Casey Kenney
66%
34%
Why
68"
Reach
68"
36
Age
Δ 6y
30
24-5
Career record
Δ 5 pp
17-4-1
L2
Current streak
W3
7
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Cruz: 89 sig / 2 TD ·
Kenney: 74 sig / 0 TD
Dominick Cruz
Casey Kenney
62
Sig strikes landed
64
142
Sig strikes attempted
145
85
Total strikes landed
81
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.1
5.6
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
175s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
78%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Dominick Cruz
"The Dominator"
24-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
—
W
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
W
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
Blue corner
W3
Casey Kenney
17-4-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
W
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—