🏆 Title fight
Main
Light Heavyweight
Jan Blachowicz vs Israel Adesanya
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Jan Blachowicz
Israel Adesanya
48%
52%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
80"
38
Age
Δ 6y
32
30-11-2
Career record
Δ 11 pp
25-6
W4
Current streak
W8
15
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Blachowicz: 107 sig / 3 TD ·
Adesanya: 78 sig / 0 TD
Jan Blachowicz
Israel Adesanya
53
Sig strikes landed
77
137
Sig strikes attempted
156
68
Total strikes landed
90
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.3
3.1
Takedowns attempted
0.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
100s
Control time
82s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Jan Blachowicz
30-11-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
15 fights · 10-5
Last 5
W
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
Blue corner
W8
Israel Adesanya
"The Last Stylebender"
25-6
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 9-0
Last 5
W
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—
W
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
W
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
W
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
—