Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Curtis Blaydes
Derrick Lewis
66%
34%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 1"
79"
30
Age
Δ 6y
36
20-6
Career record
Δ 7 pp
30-13
W4
Current streak
W3
12
UFC fights in our DB
20
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Blaydes: 28 sig / 0 TD ·
Lewis: 7 sig / 0 TD
Curtis Blaydes
Derrick Lewis
43
Sig strikes landed
24
79
Sig strikes attempted
47
70
Total strikes landed
36
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.2
4.4
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
250s
Control time
49s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Curtis Blaydes
"Razor"
20-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
12 fights · 9-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—
W
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—
Blue corner
W3
Derrick Lewis
"The Black Beast"
30-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
20 fights · 15-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
W
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
W
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
L
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—