Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Timur Valiev
Martin Day
82%
18%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 6"
74"
31
Age
Δ 1y
32
18-3
Career record
Δ 32 pp
8-7
—
Current streak
L3
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Valiev: 55 sig / 4 TD ·
Day: 8 sig / 0 TD
Timur Valiev
Martin Day
45
Sig strikes landed
42
91
Sig strikes attempted
98
66
Total strikes landed
52
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.0
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
189s
Control time
30s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Timur Valiev
"Lucky"
18-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-0
Blue corner
L3
Martin Day
"The Spartan"
8-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
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L
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
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L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
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