Back to UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny
Prelims1 Flyweight

Francisco Figueiredo vs Jerome Rivera

UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny ·Etihad Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Francisco Figueiredo
Jerome Rivera
61% 39%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
31
Age
Δ 6y
26
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Figueiredo: 29 sig / 4 TD · Rivera: 31 sig / 0 TD
Francisco Figueiredo
Jerome Rivera
39
Sig strikes landed
37
74
Sig strikes attempted
86
62
Total strikes landed
43
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.0
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
188s
Control time
74s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Francisco Figueiredo

"Sniper"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
Blue corner
L1

Jerome Rivera

"Renegade"
10-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
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