Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sumudaerji
Zarrukh Adashev
91%
9%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 7"
65"
25
Age
Δ 4y
28
20-7
Career record
Δ 30 pp
4-5
W2
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sumudaerji: 50 sig / 0 TD ·
Adashev: 28 sig / 0 TD
Sumudaerji
Zarrukh Adashev
41
Sig strikes landed
16
82
Sig strikes attempted
50
46
Total strikes landed
35
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.0
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.70
Knockdowns
0.10
98s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Sumudaerji
"The Tibetan Eagle"
20-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—
Blue corner
L1
Zarrukh Adashev
"The Lion"
4-5
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
—