Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nik Lentz
Movsar Evloev
30%
70%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
36
Age
Δ 9y
27
30-13-2
Career record
Δ 33 pp
21-0
L2
Current streak
W3
23
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Lentz: 46 sig / 1 TD ·
Evloev: 82 sig / 2 TD
Nik Lentz
Movsar Evloev
51
Sig strikes landed
55
114
Sig strikes attempted
124
69
Total strikes landed
105
0.9
Takedowns landed
3.4
5.7
Takedowns attempted
5.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
135s
Control time
303s
Method
Decision
81%
KO/TKO
7%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Nik Lentz
"The Carny"
30-13-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
23 fights · 13-8
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—
W
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
Blue corner
W3
Movsar Evloev
21-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—