Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dustin Poirier
Conor McGregor
72%
28%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
32
Age
Δ 0y
32
31-10
Career record
Δ 4 pp
23-6
W1
Current streak
W1
24
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Poirier: 48 sig / 1 TD ·
McGregor: 29 sig / 0 TD
Dustin Poirier
Conor McGregor
67
Sig strikes landed
62
127
Sig strikes attempted
128
85
Total strikes landed
76
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.2
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
151s
Control time
67s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
31-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
24 fights · 18-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
—
L
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
Blue corner
W1
Conor McGregor
"The Notorious"
23-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
12 fights · 10-2
Last 5
W
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
L
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—
L
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—