Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kamaru Usman
Gilbert Burns
80%
20%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 5"
71"
34
Age
Δ 1y
35
22-4
Career record
Δ 15 pp
23-10
W8
Current streak
W6
12
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Usman: 83 sig / 0 TD ·
Burns: 45 sig / 0 TD
Kamaru Usman
Gilbert Burns
73
Sig strikes landed
57
138
Sig strikes attempted
123
135
Total strikes landed
64
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.3
Takedowns attempted
3.7
1.00
Knockdowns
0.20
284s
Control time
69s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Kamaru Usman
"The Nigerian Nightmare"
22-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
34
In our database
12 fights · 12-0
Last 5
W
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
W
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
Blue corner
W6
Gilbert Burns
"Durinho"
23-10
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
15 fights · 12-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—