Back to UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar
Prelims1 Heavyweight

Carlos Felipe vs Justin Tafa

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar ·Etihad Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Carlos Felipe
Justin Tafa
72% 28%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
26
Age
Δ 1y
27
12-2
Career record
Δ 24 pp
8-5
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Felipe: 77 sig / 0 TD · Tafa: 86 sig / 0 TD
Carlos Felipe
Justin Tafa
34
Sig strikes landed
41
86
Sig strikes attempted
87
49
Total strikes landed
54
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.6
0.7
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
72s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Carlos Felipe

"Boi"
12-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
—
L UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
Blue corner
W1

Justin Tafa

"Bad Man"
8-5 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
L UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—