Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Tafon Nchukwi
Jamie Pickett
65%
35%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 3"
80"
26
Age
Δ 6y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Nchukwi: 120 sig / 0 TD ·
Pickett: 40 sig / 1 TD
Tafon Nchukwi
Jamie Pickett
34
Sig strikes landed
38
74
Sig strikes attempted
79
44
Total strikes landed
53
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
108s
Control time
138s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Tafon Nchukwi
"Da Don"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner
Jamie Pickett
"The Night Wolf"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32