Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jose Aldo
Marlon Vera
70%
30%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
34
Age
Δ 6y
28
32-11
Career record
Δ 10 pp
24-12-1
L3
Current streak
W1
16
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Aldo: 44 sig / 0 TD ·
Vera: 46 sig / 0 TD
Jose Aldo
Marlon Vera
66
Sig strikes landed
60
129
Sig strikes attempted
132
80
Total strikes landed
71
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
126s
Control time
85s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Jose Aldo
32-11
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
16 fights · 10-6
Last 5
L
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
L
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
L
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
Blue corner
W1
Marlon Vera
"Chito"
24-12-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database
15 fights · 10-5
Last 5
W
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—