Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Luke Sanders
Nate Maness
36%
64%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 5"
72"
35
Age
Δ 6y
29
14-5
Career record
Δ 11 pp
17-3
W1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Sanders: 55 sig / 0 TD ·
Maness: 33 sig / 1 TD
Luke Sanders
Nate Maness
25
Sig strikes landed
31
51
Sig strikes attempted
72
34
Total strikes landed
47
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.0
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
117s
Control time
128s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
35%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Luke Sanders
"Cool Hand"
14-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
L
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Nate Maness
"Mayhem"
17-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
—