Back to UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira
Prelims1 Bantamweight

Gustavo Lopez vs Anthony Birchak

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira ·Meta Apex
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Gustavo Lopez
Anthony Birchak
52% 48%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
31
Age
Δ 3y
34
12-7-1
Career record
Δ 8 pp
17-8
L1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Lopez: 26 sig / 2 TD · Birchak: 17 sig / 0 TD
Gustavo Lopez
Anthony Birchak
27
Sig strikes landed
36
62
Sig strikes attempted
83
36
Total strikes landed
54
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.0
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
138s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
21%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Gustavo Lopez

12-7-1
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
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Blue corner
W1

Anthony Birchak

"El Toro"
17-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
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W UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
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L UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
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