Main
Light Heavyweight
Thiago Santos vs Glover Teixeira
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Thiago Santos
Glover Teixeira
34%
66%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
37
Age
Δ 4y
41
22-12
Career record
Δ 14 pp
34-9
L1
Current streak
W4
19
UFC fights in our DB
19
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Santos: 40 sig / 0 TD ·
Teixeira: 46 sig / 4 TD
Thiago Santos
Glover Teixeira
51
Sig strikes landed
51
97
Sig strikes attempted
92
64
Total strikes landed
70
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
0.8
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
54s
Control time
151s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Thiago Santos
"Marreta"
22-12
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
19 fights · 13-6
Last 5
L
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
W
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—
Blue corner
W4
Glover Teixeira
34-9
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
19 fights · 14-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—