Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mario Sousa
Mariusz Ksiazkiewicz
79%
21%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
24
Age
Δ 7y
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sousa: 51 sig / 0 TD ·
Ksiazkiewicz: 14 sig / 4 TD
Mario Sousa
Mariusz Ksiazkiewicz
37
Sig strikes landed
32
78
Sig strikes attempted
62
57
Total strikes landed
41
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
130s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Mario Sousa
"Coracao Valente"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
Blue corner
Mariusz Ksiazkiewicz
"The Iron Pol"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31