Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jared Vanderaa
Harry Hunsucker
68%
32%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 5"
75"
28
Age
Δ 3y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Vanderaa: 23 sig / 1 TD ·
Hunsucker: 17 sig / 0 TD
Jared Vanderaa
Harry Hunsucker
37
Sig strikes landed
31
75
Sig strikes attempted
62
55
Total strikes landed
42
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.1
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
135s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jared Vanderaa
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
Harry Hunsucker
"The Hurricane"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32