Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Carlos Ulberg
Bruno Oliveira
81%
19%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 4"
80"
30
Age
Δ 6y
36
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ulberg: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Oliveira: 7 sig / 0 TD
Carlos Ulberg
Bruno Oliveira
37
Sig strikes landed
31
75
Sig strikes attempted
68
58
Total strikes landed
42
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.3
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
181s
Control time
57s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Carlos Ulberg
"Black Jag"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
Bruno Oliveira
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37