Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joaquin Buckley
Jordan Wright
76%
24%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
77"
27
Age
Δ 2y
29
22-8
Career record
Δ 1 pp
13-5
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Buckley: 43 sig / 0 TD ·
Wright: 18 sig / 0 TD
Joaquin Buckley
Jordan Wright
21
Sig strikes landed
31
62
Sig strikes attempted
73
33
Total strikes landed
40
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.90
Knockdowns
0.20
75s
Control time
259s
Method
Decision
15%
KO/TKO
76%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Joaquin Buckley
"New Mansa"
22-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
Blue corner
W1
Jordan Wright
"The Beverly Hills Ninja"
13-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edg…
—