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Marlon Moraes vs Cory Sandhagen

UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen ·Flash Forum
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Marlon Moraes
Cory Sandhagen
49% 51%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
24-10-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
18-7
W1
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
6

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Moraes: 14 sig / 1 TD · Sandhagen: 38 sig / 0 TD
Marlon Moraes
Cory Sandhagen
35
Sig strikes landed
50
91
Sig strikes attempted
111
46
Total strikes landed
65
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
81s
Control time
68s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Marlon Moraes

"Magic"
24-10-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
L UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
Blue corner
L1

Cory Sandhagen

18-7
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database 6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
L UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
W UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
W UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vi…
—