Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joel Alvarez
Alexander Yakovlev
79%
21%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 3"
74"
28
Age
Δ 9y
36
24-4
Career record
Δ 19 pp
24-11-1
W2
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Alvarez: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Yakovlev: 1 sig / 1 TD
Joel Alvarez
Alexander Yakovlev
28
Sig strikes landed
23
63
Sig strikes attempted
49
48
Total strikes landed
31
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
133s
Control time
81s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
37%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Joel Alvarez
"El Fenomeno"
24-4
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
Blue corner
L1
Alexander Yakovlev
"Russian Thunder"
24-11-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
8 fights · 3-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Katt…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—