Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Dustin Stoltzfus
Joe Pyfer
39%
61%
Why
75"
Reach
75"
29
Age
Δ 5y
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Stoltzfus: 16 sig / 1 TD ·
Pyfer: 12 sig / 1 TD
Dustin Stoltzfus
Joe Pyfer
37
Sig strikes landed
42
75
Sig strikes attempted
83
48
Total strikes landed
56
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
110s
Control time
125s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Dustin Stoltzfus
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
Joe Pyfer
"Bodybagz"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24