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Prelims1 Bantamweight

Nathaniel Wood vs John Castaneda

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till ·Flash Forum
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Nathaniel Wood
John Castaneda
65% 35%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
27
Age
Δ 1y
29
L1
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Wood: 131 sig / 1 TD · Castaneda: 55 sig / 0 TD
Nathaniel Wood
John Castaneda
44
Sig strikes landed
38
103
Sig strikes attempted
96
61
Total strikes landed
51
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.0
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
140s
Control time
85s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Nathaniel Wood

"The Last Kingsman"
23-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
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W UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
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W UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
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W UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
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Blue corner

John Castaneda

"Sexi Mexi"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
29