Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Evan Dunham
Herbert Burns
49%
51%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
38
Age
Δ 6y
32
18-10-1
Career record
Δ 5 pp
12-6
L2
Current streak
W1
18
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Dunham: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Burns: 5 sig / 1 TD
Evan Dunham
Herbert Burns
44
Sig strikes landed
41
97
Sig strikes attempted
105
53
Total strikes landed
55
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
148s
Control time
66s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Evan Dunham
18-10-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
39
In our database
18 fights · 9-8
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
L
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
D
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—
Blue corner
W1
Herbert Burns
"The Blaze"
12-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—