Back to UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz
Prelims1 Flyweight

Mark De La Rosa vs Raulian Paiva

UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz ·Santa Ana Star Center
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Mark De La Rosa
Raulian Paiva
31% 69%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
26
Age
Δ 1y
24
11-6
Career record
Δ 13 pp
21-6
L2
Current streak
L2
5
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
De La Rosa: 45 sig / 0 TD · Paiva: 54 sig / 0 TD
Mark De La Rosa
Raulian Paiva
39
Sig strikes landed
46
95
Sig strikes attempted
107
54
Total strikes landed
69
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.5
3.7
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
106s
Control time
167s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Mark De La Rosa

"Bumblebee"
11-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
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W UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—
W UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
L UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
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Blue corner
L2

Raulian Paiva

21-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—
L UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
—