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Prelims1 Heavyweight

Raphael Pessoa vs Jeff Hughes

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren ·Singapore Indoor Stadium
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Raphael Pessoa
Jeff Hughes
58% 42%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 1"
77"
31
Age
Δ 1y
31
10-3
Career record
Δ 5 pp
10-4
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pessoa: 39 sig / 0 TD · Hughes: 34 sig / 0 TD
Raphael Pessoa
Jeff Hughes
49
Sig strikes landed
43
106
Sig strikes attempted
82
56
Total strikes landed
70
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
65s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
58%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Raphael Pessoa

"Bebezao"
10-3
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
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Blue corner
L1

Jeff Hughes

"Lights Out"
10-4 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 2 fights · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
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