Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kyle Bochniak
Sean Woodson
28%
72%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 8"
78"
33
Age
Δ 5y
27
L2
Current streak
—
6
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Bochniak: 42 sig / 1 TD ·
Woodson: 111 sig / 0 TD
Kyle Bochniak
Sean Woodson
32
Sig strikes landed
46
85
Sig strikes attempted
93
42
Total strikes landed
65
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.5
5.0
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
100s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Kyle Bochniak
"Killer B"
8-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
6 fights · 2-4
Last 5
L
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
L
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
W
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
Blue corner
Sean Woodson
"The Sniper"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27