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Prelims1 Lightweight

Claudio Puelles vs Marcos Mariano

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens ·Arena CDMX
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Claudio Puelles
Marcos Mariano
87% 13%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
23
Age
Δ 10y
33
14-5
Career record
Δ 28 pp
6-7
W1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Puelles: 22 sig / 4 TD · Mariano: 2 sig / 0 TD
Claudio Puelles
Marcos Mariano
36
Sig strikes landed
28
75
Sig strikes attempted
59
60
Total strikes landed
45
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.2
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
330s
Control time
82s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Claudio Puelles

"Prince of Peru"
14-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
L UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
Blue corner
L1

Marcos Mariano

"Dhalsim"
6-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
—