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Main Heavyweight

Rodrigo Nascimento vs Michal Martinek

DWCS 3.6 ·Meta Apex
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Rodrigo Nascimento
Michal Martinek
67% 33%
Why
27
Age
Δ 3y
29

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Nascimento: 14 sig / 0 TD · Martinek: 8 sig / 0 TD
Rodrigo Nascimento
Michal Martinek
33
Sig strikes landed
33
66
Sig strikes attempted
62
54
Total strikes landed
47
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.0
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
117s
Control time
127s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
53%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Rodrigo Nascimento

"Ze Colmeia"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner

Michal Martinek

0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29