Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Stephen Regman
Antonio Arroyo
66%
34%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 3"
74"
28
Age
Δ 2y
30
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Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Regman: 12 sig / 2 TD ·
Arroyo: 42 sig / 0 TD
Stephen Regman
Antonio Arroyo
31
Sig strikes landed
45
74
Sig strikes attempted
77
48
Total strikes landed
54
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.3
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
157s
Control time
54s
Method
Decision
77%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Stephen Regman
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
W1
Antonio Arroyo
10-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
DWCS Brazil 1.1
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