Prelims1
Lightweight
Matt Wiman vs Luis Pena
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. The Korean Zombie
·Bon Secours Wellness Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Matt Wiman
Luis Pena
38%
62%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 7"
75"
36
Age
Δ 10y
26
17-10
Career record
Δ 14 pp
10-3
W1
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Wiman: 24 sig / 1 TD ·
Pena: 87 sig / 1 TD
Matt Wiman
Luis Pena
33
Sig strikes landed
36
56
Sig strikes attempted
87
53
Total strikes landed
53
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.9
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
208s
Control time
196s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Matt Wiman
17-10
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
L
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
Blue corner
W1
Luis Pena
"Violent Bob Ross"
10-3
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—