Back to UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis
Main Featherweight

Luis Pena vs Steven Peterson

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis ·Bridgestone Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Luis Pena
Steven Peterson
60% 40%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 5"
70"
26
Age
Δ 3y
29
9-4
Career record
Δ 5 pp
20-11
L1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pena: 52 sig / 1 TD · Peterson: 34 sig / 4 TD
Luis Pena
Steven Peterson
49
Sig strikes landed
40
132
Sig strikes attempted
104
67
Total strikes landed
72
1.4
Takedowns landed
2.0
4.6
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
185s
Control time
196s
Method
Decision
78%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Luis Pena

"Violent Bob Ross"
9-4
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—
W The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
Blue corner
W1

Steven Peterson

"Ocho"
20-11
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—