Back to UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2
Prelims1 Featherweight

Geraldo de Freitas vs Felipe Colares

UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 ·Centro de Formação Olímpica do Nordeste
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Geraldo de Freitas
Felipe Colares
55% 45%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
27
Age
Δ 2y
25

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
de Freitas: 49 sig / 6 TD · Colares: 21 sig / 3 TD
Geraldo de Freitas
Felipe Colares
37
Sig strikes landed
37
77
Sig strikes attempted
78
52
Total strikes landed
51
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
137s
Control time
125s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Geraldo de Freitas

"Spartan"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner

Felipe Colares

"Cabocao"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25