Prelims1
Flyweight
Magomed Bibulatov vs Rogerio Bontorin
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2
·Centro de Formação Olímpica do Nordeste
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Magomed Bibulatov
Rogerio Bontorin
50%
50%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
30
Age
Δ 4y
27
L1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Bibulatov: 58 sig / 4 TD ·
Bontorin: 40 sig / 1 TD
Magomed Bibulatov
Rogerio Bontorin
30
Sig strikes landed
37
62
Sig strikes attempted
74
51
Total strikes landed
52
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
5.5
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
228s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Magomed Bibulatov
"Chaborz"
14-3
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
W
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
Blue corner
Rogerio Bontorin
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27