Prelims2
Welterweight
Curtis Millender vs Siyar Bahadurzada
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
·The Forum
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Curtis Millender
Siyar Bahadurzada
50%
50%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 3"
73"
31
Age
Δ 4y
35
18-5
Career record
Δ 5 pp
25-8-1
W2
Current streak
W3
2
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Millender: 89 sig / 0 TD ·
Bahadurzada: 40 sig / 3 TD
Curtis Millender
Siyar Bahadurzada
51
Sig strikes landed
34
114
Sig strikes attempted
87
54
Total strikes landed
48
0.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.1
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
32s
Control time
84s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Curtis Millender
"Curtious"
18-5
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—
Blue corner
W3
Siyar Bahadurzada
"The Great"
25-8-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—
W
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
L
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—