Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kevin Aguilar
Joey Gomez
72%
28%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
30
Age
Δ 1y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Aguilar: 50 sig / 0 TD ·
Gomez: 56 sig / 2 TD
Kevin Aguilar
Joey Gomez
39
Sig strikes landed
32
79
Sig strikes attempted
74
55
Total strikes landed
42
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
149s
Control time
110s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Kevin Aguilar
"Angel of Death"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
Joey Gomez
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29