Back to UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders
Prelims2 Middleweight

Thales Leites vs Hector Lombard

UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders ·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Thales Leites
Hector Lombard
52% 48%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 7"
71"
37
Age
Δ 4y
41
28-10
Career record
Δ 0 pp
34-11-1
L2
Current streak
L5
12
UFC fights in our DB
11

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Leites: 54 sig / 2 TD · Lombard: 46 sig / 0 TD
Thales Leites
Hector Lombard
35
Sig strikes landed
30
78
Sig strikes attempted
54
63
Total strikes landed
45
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.6
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
176s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Thales Leites

28-10
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
L UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
—
L UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
W UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
Blue corner
L5

Hector Lombard

34-11-1 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
41
In our database 11 fights · 3-7
Last 5
L UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
L UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
L UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
L UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—