Main
Light Heavyweight
Mauricio Rua vs Anthony Smith
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith
·Barclaycard Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Mauricio Rua
Anthony Smith
44%
56%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
37
Age
Δ 7y
30
28-14-1
Career record
Δ 1 pp
39-22
W3
Current streak
W1
13
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Rua: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Smith: 23 sig / 0 TD
Mauricio Rua
Anthony Smith
39
Sig strikes landed
44
72
Sig strikes attempted
93
50
Total strikes landed
49
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.5
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
122s
Control time
58s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
53%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Mauricio Rua
"Shogun"
28-14-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
13 fights · 7-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
L
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—
Blue corner
W1
Anthony Smith
"Lionheart"
39-22
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—